Low Economy, Long Skirts: A Sociological Analysis of Runway Modesty and Mood During Economic Recessions

qualitative research done for my sociological research methods class. i got an A on this so i feel good about it for the most part. enjoy <3

Introduction:

Since the moment fashion has developed beyond practicality, it has been a mirror of culture and social change. No longer just a way to cover the body, clothing communicates how we feel, and the times we live in. Fashion is not merely a tool for symbolic communication; it can also work to symbolize the economy. Earlier studies examined how fashion reacts to economic cycles (Aspers & Godart, 2013) and how clothes connect with culture and politics (Conekin, 2012). The central inquiry guiding this research is: How do hemlines seen on Ready-to-Wear Spring-Summer runways correlate with times of recessions, specifically within the 20th and 21st centuries? Drawing on the Hemline Index Theory, qualitative content analysis is used on 27 runway shows surrounding the financial crisis of 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic recession, showing pre-, during, and post-recession, respectively.

The culturally debated “Hemline Index Theory” argues that skirt lengths rise during economic booms, while economic downturns correlate with longer hemlines (The Gauntlet, 2022). Posed initially in the 1920s, this theory is foundational to understanding connections between the economy and fashion. With the aid of coding for the length of hemlines and thematic styling, this study examines how fashion fits into the larger sociological and economic narratives of its time.

Literature Review:

Sociological Theories Within Fashion

As sociology pertains to systems of meaning and experience, fashion visually expresses these processes. Fashion works to reflect societal and economic moods and is embedded in the structure of symbolic interaction (Aspers & Godart, 2013). At its core, fashion is an individual reflection and a collective. Georg Simmel argued that fashion is within the convergence of differentiation and imitation (Simmel, 1904). Group identity can be conformed to, whilst still upholding the individual side of expression. Simmel’s theory anticipates the instability of fashion during periods of uncertainty, such as economic upheaval, and argues that the collective identity of fashion can provide a sense of certainty on an individual level.

This idea was furthered by Aspers and Godart (2013), who described fashion as a social field that combines creativity and commerce. Creative figureheads often create designs that reflect the collective mood and ethos, which is prominent in appealing to the mass market. The authors interpret different fashion changes through sociological terms and analyse the changes through concepts such as Simmel’s class trickle-down theory (or the “class distinction approach”) and the meaning of clothes through coded contexts. The collision of economic markets and fashion is expressed as “Fashion emerges from a process of mutual adaptation and thus links micro decisions to macro processes, but numerous attempts to organize and tame it are made to reduce its inherent uncertainty…” (Aspers, Godart 2013, p. 187). Fashion is a facet of response to the socioeconomic atmosphere.

History of the Hemline Index Theory

The Hemline Index Theory, hypothesized by George Taylor, argues that fashion trends, specifically skirt lengths, shift with the economy. It is theorized that during economic booms, hemlines rise, and in downturns, they drop (Ahmed, 2022). Following the end of World War I, the U.S economy doubled, as GDP expanded by 40% (History.com Editors, 2010). Fashion reflected this change as hemlines rose, corsets were rejected, and drop-waist dresses with straight bodices became popular within the Roaring Twenties. However, when the Great Depression hit and the stock market crashed in 1929 (Klein), fashion trends became increasingly more conservative, with skirt hemlines descending (Reddy, 2019).

Hemlines stayed at a conservative length until “The Swinging Sixties”. The economy was in bloom during a period of low and stable CPI (World Bank 2024), with low recession indicators. In congruence with the economy, the hemlines shot up at the emergence of the “miniskirt.” Mary Quant designed the skirt of liberation, presenting the youth with something symbolic of their freedom as “they wielded a new economic power” (Conekin, 91).

Throughout the 1970s, growing economic dissatisfaction rooted in stagflation (Federal Reserve History, N.d.) shifted the designs emitted in fashion, displaying another drop in hemline length. Prairie-style dresses became favored, and designers such as Laura Ashley popularized the look (Fortini).

Methods:

Research Design: Qualitative Content Analysis

This research employs qualitative content analysis as its primary method for recording hemline and thematic runway observations. With brand identity in mind, the designers selected were Marc Jacobs, Prada, and Dolce & Gabbana, who tend to be consistent in their collections and avoid potential spurious variables. For each designer, Spring/Summer Ready-to-Wear collections were gathered for the desired years: 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023. These shows were selected systematically, guided by Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) data, specifically the U.S GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index. The FRED indicator identified periods of official U.S. recession to identify the years of content from which to select runway shows, using 2008 and 2020 as base years of recession. To observe the designers' responses to a recession beginning in the collections shown in the subsequent fashion seasons, known as temporal lag (Al-Halah, 393), although the downturn happened in 2008 or 2020, the data is referred to as a pre-recession period because of this lag.

The recession has organized the data for each show, using “Case One” to describe the shows from 2008 to 2012 and “Case Two” to describe the shows from 2020 to 2023. Due to the length of the recession in Case Two, only one show is used for the year of recession, 2021, compared to two in Case One. I compiled links for each show I intended to analyze using Vogue Runway, an online database of archival runway shows. To organize this information effectively, I created an Excel file to store and manage the links systematically, with each row labeled and grouped by designer, year, and period type before coding the images for further variables. Due to gaps in archival access, Marc Jacobs Spring/Summer 2012 was excluded from coding. Only collections with full runway images and Vogue reviews were analyzed to maintain consistency.

Conceptualization and Operationalization

Following the approach outlined in Warren and Karner (2020, p. 174), my observation unit was primarily the hemline length, where the skirt falls on the leg, as well as latent features such as styling tone and thematic framing (eccentric, revealing, somber, classic, modest, etc.). These variables were chosen based on previous fashion studies linking physical garment attributes and emotional tone to broader sociopolitical conditions (Gilbert, 2017; Ahmed, 2022). Hemline Length was coded numerically based on its placement on the leg:

0- Micro: very short, typically mid-thigh or higher (barely covers buttocks or upper thighs)

1-Mini: Ends mid-thigh; short but wearable

2 Knee: At or right above the knee

3- Midi: Falls below the knee, around mid-calf

4- Maxi: Ankle-length or floor-length

This approach allows for comparison of the coded data across pre-recession, recession, and post-recession years. In this way, we can clearly understand how uncertainty flows into fashion: physically through shape and invisibly through mood and meaning.

Findings

Case One: The 2008 Financial Crisis (2008-2012)

Having officially begun in December 2007, the 2008 U.S. recession, which began with the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, marked an event when credit access and employment declined globally. By 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate had risen to 10% (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2010), and GDP had shrunk by 2.5%, the most significant annual decline since World War II (FRED n.d.).

The 2008 recession had an impact across industries, including fashion. 2008 is treated here as the final moment before the recession’s impact was fully registered in fashion and collections from 2009 and 2010 capture designers' initial responses to global economic instability during the years of recession. The 2011 and 2012 collections are used as representations of post-recession years. Within the analysis of 15 Spring/Summer Ready-to-Wear shows, this period showed a significant tone of expression during the 2009 and 2010 shows.

Dolce & Gabbana's 2008 collection is pattern-heavy with organza detailing and painted florals, an optimistic tone (Vogue Runway, 2008a). The hemline average was 2.1, knee-length average. The following year, the first effects of the recession in 2009, the hemline dropped to 2.38, and the collection was filled with dark colors, with men’s pajamas at the forefront of women's wear. The collection was described as minimal and nautical, with cool dark tones and less exposure, suggesting a clear aesthetic shift toward caution and conservatism (Vogue Runway, 2009a). In 2010, the average hemline dropped to 1.44, the shortest of the three years, but the collection’s themes were nostalgic, featuring warm tones and Western Americana references. So even though the skirts were shorter, the modesty came through in layering and vintage silhouettes (Vogue Runway, 2010a). Similarly, 2011 had an average hemline of 1.65, continuing with shorter lengths and light lace fabrics. The collection revolved around the symbolic idea of a “hope chest.” The designers described it as a sentimental tribute to the delicate items a bride would collect before entering a new chapter of life (Vogue Runway, 2011a). The show’s emotional tone, rooted in love, tradition, and renewal, reflected a gentle push toward lightness. In 2012, Dolce & Gabbana continued this visual reemergence. The hemline remained mini at 1.45, and the styling was no longer restrained. The collection embraced baroque glamour, black and golds, cherubs, and rich, textural silhouettes (Vogue Runway, 2012a).

Marc Jacobs also reflected this shift. The Spring 2008 collection was romantic and whimsical, marked by transparency, pastels, and described as “getting dressed and undressed” (Vogue Runway, 2008b). The hemline was a modest 2.4, but with sex at the core of the show, there was more liberation present than displayed just by the length. Nevertheless, by 2009, he pivoted sharply to a collection dominated by dark colors and 80s-inspired power shoulders. 41 of the 52 looks fall below the knee, an unmistakable turn toward restraint and structure (Vogue Runway, 2009b). The 2010 show continued this trajectory with conservative layering and an average hemline of 2.7, structured silhouettes, and a muted palette. Described in Vogue as “the antithesis to the prior collection” (Vogue Runway, 2010b), Jacobs noted that he wanted to strip things down. There was still significant coverage and layering, but the tone began to soften. (Vogue Runway 2010b). By 2011, the hemline retreated to 2.4. While many looks remained at the knee, the styling felt far more liberated. The collection was a glam throwback to the 1970s, bright colors, sheer fabrics, and flowy elements that conveyed a sense of sensuality (Vogue Runway, 2011b). Though the garments still used structure, the narrative shifted from economic caution to retro optimism and aesthetic play.

In 2008, Prada’s Spring collection had a hemline average of 2.68 and drew from late ‘60s and early ‘70s influences. Sheer fabrics and floral detailing suggested a relaxed, pre-recession atmosphere (Vogue Runway, 2008c). Simplicity took over in the 2009 collection, which held a hemline average of 2.5. Though a mild decrease, the styling concentrated on structured silhouettes and muted tones, reflecting a move toward simplicity and tradition during the recession (Vogue Runway, 2009c). Prada’s 2010 collection is an outlier in this trend. While the previous recession-year collections favored longer hemlines, Prada’s average dropped to 0.5, the shortest in the dataset. However, the minimalism and clean shapes suggest that the short length was not about provocation but simplification. Miuccia Prada described the collection as a conscious rejection of despair, stating, “Optimism is a choice” (Vogue Runway, 2010c). In 2011, the hemline dropped to 1.9, but the collection introduced bold color and print mixing. Prada described it as “brave, bold, and obvious” (Vogue Runway, 2011c), and the designs began to be expressive again. In 2012, the hemline averaged 1.5. There were pale blues and pastel pinks, with a lighter and more playful mood, affirming that the brand was moving away from the restraint of the previous years (Vogue Runway, 2012b).

Case Two: The COVID-19 Recession (2020-2023)

The COVID-19 pandemic created a different kind of recession rooted not just in economics but also in isolation and emotional burnout (Hofreiter). This second case study examines the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, beginning with Spring/Summer 2020 as the pre-recession collection. While COVID-19 was declared a global pandemic in March 2020 (World Health Organization 2020), runway shows for that season had already taken place earlier in the year, meaning many collections still reflected a pre-pandemic mindset. The recession, marked by the most significant quarterly GDP drop on record and unemployment peaking at 14.8% in April 2020 (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2020), is represented here by the 2021 collections. The 2022 and 2023 collections reflect the post-recession recovery.

Across the designers studied, the 2020 and 2021 collections leaned toward restraint, while 2022 and 2023 signaled a release. Hemlines rose again, colors returned, and designers explored themes of escape.

At Dolce & Gabbana, the Spring 2020 collection had a hemline average of 1.87. It was upbeat, full of animal prints and tropical motifs. The designers described it as their “Sicilian jungle,” emphasizing their focus on happiness and summertime energy despite uncertainty (Vogue Runway, 2020a). By 2021, the tone changed. Hemlines lengthened to 2.47, one of the highest averages in the set, and the styling turned minimal and dark. The show centered on craftsmanship and unity during crisis. According to the designers, “This is a moment for bonding, not coming apart” (Vogue Runway, 2021a). In 2022, the average rose again to 1.59, and the collection embraced metallics as: “We are coming out of a dark time... and we want to enjoy life” (Vogue Runway, 2022a).

Marc Jacobs followed a similar rhythm. In 2020, his collection had a hemline average of 3.5, the longest in the entire dataset. This collection featured full-length garments and layers, likely reflecting the early-pandemic moment of retreat. The brand did not show in 2021. However, by 2023, the mood had flipped. The hemline was back up to 2.7, and the collection, inspired by Vivienne Westwood, leaned into visual rebellion. Garments were deconstructed, oversized, or worn in unconventional ways. Jacobs referenced Westwood’s use of theatrical silhouettes and punk references, offering a form of post-pandemic catharsis (Vogue Runway, 2023).

Prada offered a more gradual shift. In 2020, the hemline average was 2.8, modest and in line with the larger trend of restraint. By 2021, it descended to 3.38, Prada’s longest recession-era average. Most of the collection featured black, high necklines, and loose tailoring. The tone was quiet and emotionally closed off (Vogue Runway, 2021b). In contrast, in 2022, the average hemline dropped sharply to 0.8, and the collection was titled “Seduction, Stripped Down”. Transparent fabrics and body-conscious cuts marked a clear turn toward reengagement and bodily presence (Vogue Runway, 2022b).

Cases Compared

The pattern is consistent across both recession cycles: fashion becomes more modest during economic downturns, with longer hemlines, structured silhouettes, and emotionally reserved styling. As conditions improve, hemlines shorten, color returns, and designers lean into visual self-expression. Even when exceptions appear, like Prada’s short hemlines in 2010 or D&G’s bright 2020 prints, the overall style remains in sync with the moment’s broader mood.

During the recession years of 2009, 2010, and 2021, most runway collections displayed a marked retreat in styling, with longer hemlines, darker color palettes, and more modest silhouettes dominating the visual language of the period. Marc Jacobs especially leaned into this shift. In 2009, Jacobs’ collection featured 41 out of 52 looks below the knee. Thematically, designers pulled from historical references with wartime tailoring, 1980s silhouettes, and subdued palettes, underscoring the broader mood of caution and survival.

Post-recession collections marked a tonal shift in both cases (2011–2012 and 2022–2023). Hemlines rose again, color returned to the runway, and playfulness re-entered the conversation. Designers embraced eclecticism, sensuality, and risk, not only in silhouette but in spirit. Prada's post-recession collections featured bold prints and femininity. Marc Jacobs drew on the free spirit of the 1970s and a Vivienne Westwood-inspired rebellion. The collections mirrored the optimism that follows a recession. Both cases demonstrate the cyclical relationship between economic mood and fashion’s visual elements, the “structure of feeling” (Gilbert, 2017).

Conclusion

This study examined how high-fashion runways visually narrate economic conditions, specifically through shifts in modesty, silhouette, and hemline length during and after recession periods. Drawing from sociological theories of fashion as social performance (Simmel), cultural reflection (Conekin), and affective response (Gilbert), the research explored how material design choices mirror moments of uncertainty, resilience, and renewal.

Consistent patterns emerged across two major economic downturns, the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. Both cases shifted toward longer hemlines and darker, more conservative themes during peak recession years. The average scores for hemlines increased in 2009 and 2021, indicative of a group turn toward modesty and protection. After the recession, in 2011 and 2022, designers returned to being playful and optimistic, opting for more dramatic silhouettes and eclectic skin exposure. Fashion trends indicate that runway fashion absorbs and transforms the sociopolitical climate in emotive and symbolic ways.

The findings contribute to the sociological understanding of fashion as a responsive system that codes economic and emotional states into visible, wearable forms. They affirm that even in spaces assumed to be driven by aesthetics, such as the runway, economic instability translates into visual conservatism, while economic recovery fuels bolder expressions.

Like any study, this one has its limitations. Due to archival gaps, a few shows could not be analyzed in this study. Future research might incorporate interviews with designers or consumers to triangulate these visual readings with intent and perception. A broader data pool across more designers and seasons could also deepen insights into how different fashion houses navigate crises.

Ultimately, the runway emerges as a stage for trends and a screen onto which societies project their fears, hopes, and changing values. In the quiet drop of a skirt hem or the bold cut of a mini, we see how clothes chronicle the collective mood and how fashion, even in its most exclusive forms, becomes a barometer for the public psyche.

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